13e. Synthesis methods – Methods for exploring heterogeneity

Describe any methods used to explore possible causes of heterogeneity among study results (such as subgroup analysis, meta-regression).

Essential elements

  • If methods were used to explore possible causes of statistical heterogeneity, specify the method used (such as subgroup analysis, meta-regression).

  • If subgroup analysis or meta-regression was performed, specify for each:

    • which factors were explored, levels of those factors, and which direction of effect modification was expected and why (where possible).

    • whether analyses were conducted using study-level variables (where each study is included in one subgroup only), within-study contrasts (where data on subsets of participants within a study are available, allowing the study to be included in more than one subgroup), or some combination of the above.1

    • how subgroup effects were compared (such as statistical test for interaction for subgroup analyses2).

  • If other methods were used to explore heterogeneity because data were not amenable to meta-analysis of effect estimates, describe the methods used (such as structuring tables to examine variation in results across studies based on subpopulation, key intervention components, or contextual factors) along with the factors and levels.34

  • If any analyses used to explore heterogeneity were not pre-specified, identify them as such.

Explanation

If authors used methods to explore possible causes of variation of results across studies (that is, statistical heterogeneity) such as subgroup analysis or meta-regression (see item 13d, meta-analysis), they should provide sufficient details so that readers are able to assess the appropriateness of the selected methods and could reproduce the reported results (with access to the data). Such methods might be used to explore whether, for example, participant or intervention characteristics or risk of bias of the included studies explain variation in results.

Example

“Given a sufficient number of trials, we used unadjusted and adjusted mixed-effects meta-regression analyses to assess whether variation among studies in smoking cessation effect size was moderated by tailoring of the intervention for disadvantaged groups. The resulting regression coefficient indicates how the outcome variable (log risk ratio (RR) for smoking cessation) changes when interventions take a socioeconomic-position-tailored versus non-socioeconomic-tailored approach. A statistically significant (p<0.05) coefficient indicates that there is a linear association between the effect estimate for smoking cessation and the explanatory variable. More moderators (study-level variables) can be included in the model, which might account for part of the heterogeneity in the true effects. We pre-planned an adjusted model to include important study covariates related to the intensity and delivery of the intervention (number of sessions delivered (above median vs below median), whether interventions involved a trained smoking cessation specialist (yes vs no), and use of pharmacotherapy in the intervention group (yes vs no). These covariates were included a priori as potential confounders given that programmes tailored to socioeconomic position might include more intervention sessions or components or be delivered by different professionals with varying experience. The regression coefficient estimates how the intervention effect in the socioeconomic-position-tailored subgroup differs from the reference group of non-socioeconomic-position-tailored interventions.”5

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References

1.
Fisher DJ, Carpenter JR, Morris TP, Freeman SC, Tierney JF. Meta-analytical methods to identify who benefits most from treatments: Daft, deluded, or deft approach? BMJ. Published online March 2017:j573. doi:10.1136/bmj.j573
2.
Deeks JJ, Higgins JP, Altman DG. Analysing data and undertaking meta‐analyses. Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions. Published online September 2019:241-284. doi:10.1002/9781119536604.ch10
3.
McKenzie JE, Brennan SE. Synthesizing and presenting findings using other methods. Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions. Published online September 2019:321-347. doi:10.1002/9781119536604.ch12
4.
Campbell M, McKenzie JE, Sowden A, et al. Synthesis without meta-analysis (SWiM) in systematic reviews: Reporting guideline. BMJ. Published online January 2020:l6890. doi:10.1136/bmj.l6890
5.
Kock L, Brown J, Hiscock R, Tattan-Birch H, Smith C, Shahab L. Individual-level behavioural smoking cessation interventions tailored for disadvantaged socioeconomic position: A systematic review and meta-regression. The Lancet Public Health. 2019;4(12):e628-e644. doi:10.1016/s2468-2667(19)30220-8

Citation

For attribution, please cite this work as:
Page MJ, Moher D, Bossuyt PM, et al. PRISMA 2020 explanation and elaboration: updated guidance and exemplars for reporting systematic reviews. BMJ. 372:n160. doi:10.1136/bmj.n160

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Cohort studies

A cohort study is an observational study in which a group of people with a particular exposure (e.g. a putative risk factor or protective factor) and a group of people without this exposure are followed over time. The outcomes of the people in the exposed group are compared to the outcomes of the people in the unexposed group to see if the exposure is associated with particular outcomes (e.g. getting cancer or length of life).

Source.

Case-control studies

A case-control study is a research method used in healthcare to investigate potential risk factors for a specific disease. It involves comparing individuals who have been diagnosed with the disease (cases) to those who have not (controls). By analysing the differences between the two groups, researchers can identify factors that may contribute to the development of the disease.

An example would be when researchers conducted a case-control study examining whether exposure to diesel exhaust particles increases the risk of respiratory disease in underground miners. Cases included miners diagnosed with respiratory disease, while controls were miners without respiratory disease. Participants' past occupational exposures to diesel exhaust particles were evaluated to compare exposure rates between cases and controls.

Source.

Cross-sectional studies

A cross-sectional study (also sometimes called a "cross-sectional survey") serves as an observational tool, where researchers capture data from a cohort of participants at a singular point. This approach provides a 'snapshot'— a brief glimpse into the characteristics or outcomes prevalent within a designated population at that precise point in time. The primary aim here is not to track changes or developments over an extended period but to assess and quantify the current situation regarding specific variables or conditions. Such a methodology is instrumental in identifying patterns or correlations among various factors within the population, providing a basis for further, more detailed investigation.

Source

Systematic reviews

A systematic review is a comprehensive approach designed to identify, evaluate, and synthesise all available evidence relevant to a specific research question. In essence, it collects all possible studies related to a given topic and design, and reviews and analyses their results.

The process involves a highly sensitive search strategy to ensure that as much pertinent information as possible is gathered. Once collected, this evidence is often critically appraised to assess its quality and relevance, ensuring that conclusions drawn are based on robust data. Systematic reviews often involve defining inclusion and exclusion criteria, which help to focus the analysis on the most relevant studies, ultimately synthesising the findings into a coherent narrative or statistical synthesis. Some systematic reviews will include a meta-analysis.

Source

Systematic review protocols

TODO

Meta analyses of Observational Studies

TODO

Randomised Trials

A randomised controlled trial (RCT) is a trial in which participants are randomly assigned to one of two or more groups: the experimental group or groups receive the intervention or interventions being tested; the comparison group (control group) receive usual care or no treatment or a placebo. The groups are then followed up to see if there are any differences between the results. This helps in assessing the effectiveness of the intervention.

Source

Randomised Trial Protocols

TODO

Qualitative research

Research that aims to gather and analyse non-numerical (descriptive) data in order to gain an understanding of individuals' social reality, including understanding their attitudes, beliefs, and motivation. This type of research typically involves in-depth interviews, focus groups, or field observations in order to collect data that is rich in detail and context. Qualitative research is often used to explore complex phenomena or to gain insight into people's experiences and perspectives on a particular topic. It is particularly useful when researchers want to understand the meaning that people attach to their experiences or when they want to uncover the underlying reasons for people's behavior. Qualitative methods include ethnography, grounded theory, discourse analysis, and interpretative phenomenological analysis.

Source

Case Reports

TODO

Diagnostic Test Accuracy Studies

Diagnostic accuracy studies focus on estimating the ability of the test(s) to correctly identify subjects with a predefined target condition, or the condition of interest (sensitivity) as well as to clearly identify those without the condition (specificity).

Prediction Models

Prediction model research is used to test the accurarcy of a model or test in estimating an outcome value or risk. Most models estimate the probability of the presence of a particular health condition (diagnostic) or whether a particular outcome will occur in the future (prognostic). Prediction models are used to support clinical decision making, such as whether to refer patients for further testing, monitor disease deterioration or treatment effects, or initiate treatment or lifestyle changes. Examples of well known prediction models include EuroSCORE II for cardiac surgery, the Gail model for breast cancer, the Framingham risk score for cardiovascular disease, IMPACT for traumatic brain injury, and FRAX for osteoporotic and hip fractures.

Source

Animal Research

TODO

Quality Improvement in Healthcare

Quality improvement research is about finding out how to improve and make changes in the most effective way. It is about systematically and rigourously exploring "what works" to improve quality in healthcare and the best ways to measure and disseminate this to ensure positive change. Most quality improvement effectiveness research is conducted in hospital settings, is focused on multiple quality improvement interventions, and uses process measures as outcomes. There is a great deal of variation in the research designs used to examine quality improvement effectiveness.

Source

Economic Evaluations in Healthcare

TODO

Meta Analyses

A meta-analysis is a statistical technique that amalgamates data from multiple studies to yield a single estimate of the effect size. This approach enhances precision and offers a more comprehensive understanding by integrating quantitative findings. Central to a meta-analysis is the evaluation of heterogeneity, which examines variations in study outcomes to ensure that differences in populations, interventions, or methodologies do not skew results. Techniques such as meta-regression or subgroup analysis are frequently employed to explore how various factors might influence the outcomes. This method is particularly effective when aiming to quantify the effect size, odds ratio, or risk ratio, providing a clearer numerical estimate that can significantly inform clinical or policy decisions.

How Meta-analyses and Systematic Reviews Work Together

Systematic reviews and meta-analyses function together, each complementing the other to provide a more robust understanding of research evidence. A systematic review meticulously gathers and evaluates all pertinent studies, establishing a solid foundation of qualitative and quantitative data. Within this framework, if the collected data exhibit sufficient homogeneity, a meta-analysis can be performed. This statistical synthesis allows for the integration of quantitative results from individual studies, producing a unified estimate of effect size. Techniques such as meta-regression or subgroup analysis may further refine these findings, elucidating how different variables impact the overall outcome. By combining these methodologies, researchers can achieve both a comprehensive narrative synthesis and a precise quantitative measure, enhancing the reliability and applicability of their conclusions. This integrated approach ensures that the findings are not only well-rounded but also statistically robust, providing greater confidence in the evidence base.

Why Don't All Systematic Reviews Use a Meta-Analysis?

Systematic reviews do not always have meta-analyses, due to variations in the data. For a meta-analysis to be viable, the data from different studies must be sufficiently similar, or homogeneous, in terms of design, population, and interventions. When the data shows significant heterogeneity, meaning there are considerable differences among the studies, combining them could lead to skewed or misleading conclusions. Furthermore, the quality of the included studies is critical; if the studies are of low methodological quality, merging their results could obscure true effects rather than explain them.

Protocol

A plan or set of steps that defines how something will be done. Before carrying out a research study, for example, the research protocol sets out what question is to be answered and how information will be collected and analysed.

Source

Systematic_review

A review that uses explicit, systematic methods to collate and synthesize findings of studies that address a clearly formulated question.

Source

Statistical synthesis

The combination of quantitative results of two or more studies. This encompasses meta-analysis of effect estimates (described below) and other methods, such as combining P values, calculating the range and distribution of observed effects, and vote counting based on the direction of effect (see McKenzie and Brennan for a description of each method)

Meta-analysis of effect estimates

A statistical technique used to synthesize results when study effect estimates and their variances are available, yielding a quantitative summary of results.

Source

Outcome

An event or measurement collected for participants in a study (such as quality of life, mortality).

Result

The combination of a point estimate (such as a mean difference, risk ratio or proportion) and a measure of its precision (such as a confidence/credible interval) for a particular outcome.

Reports

Documents (paper or electronic) supplying information about a particular study. A report could be a journal article, preprint, conference abstract, study register entry, clinical study report, dissertation, unpublished manuscript, government report, or any other document providing relevant information.

Record

The title or abstract (or both) of a report indexed in a database or website (such as a title or abstract for an article indexed in Medline). Records that refer to the same report (such as the same journal article) are “duplicates”; however, records that refer to reports that are merely similar (such as a similar abstract submitted to two different conferences) should be considered unique.

Study

An investigation, such as a clinical trial, that includes a defined group of participants and one or more interventions and outcomes. A “study” might have multiple reports. For example, reports could include the protocol, statistical analysis plan, baseline characteristics, results for the primary outcome, results for harms, results for secondary outcomes, and results for additional mediator and moderator analyses.